odds of a further ecb rate cut next year fall to 50%. it's a coin flip on whether the ecb easing cycle is over. market pricing for mid-2026 before the ecb press conference was at about 60% but it's drifted down to just below 50% after lagarde took a upbeat tone around growth. the july 2026 meeting is most likely for another cut at the moment with 12.2 bps of easing priced in. for the remainder of this year, the odds of a cut fell to 24% from 40% pre-decision. with that the euro also climbed about 45 pips from pre-ecb levels. it initially fell but quickly recovered and climbed when lagarde shifted the balance of growth risks to neutral from negative. #ecb #lagarde #ratecut #euro #marketoutlook #forexanalysis #tradingstrategy #economicgrowth #investinglive #marketvolatility usdchf falls to the 100 hour ma after the us jobless claims. yesterday at this time, the technical bias tilt was to the downside with the price below the 100-hour moving average. however, the price rebounded in the session and was able to extend back above that moving average by the close. today, the usdchf pair initially pushed higher and the early u.s. session, the price broke above the 200-hour moving average at 0.8001. that move came in tandem with the eurusd's drop following the initial reaction to the ecb policy announcement. however, the rally was short-lived. a sharp spike in u.s. initial jobless claims to 263k vs. 235k expected quickly flipped the script. sellers stepped in, driving the pair back down toward the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.7967. this time, on the first test, support buyers leaned against the level, giving the pair leading to a modest bounce. at the moment, the pair is trading near 0.7973. the short-term bias has tilted slightly to the downside after the failed break above the 200-hour ma and the subsequent fall back below the 38.2% retracement of the move lower from last week's high. that level comes in at 0.7975. that said, the 100-hour ma at 0.7967 remains the key risk-defining level. if price holds above it, buyers may continue to defend and look for a rebound toward the topside. a sustained move below, however, would open the door for a deeper correction lower. overall, the buyers had their shot. they failed. the sellers are taking their shot. will they be able to push below the 100-hour moving average, or is the battle between 100 and 200-hour moving averages what traders are focused on? fundamentally, earlier this week snbs schlegel commented on policy going forward saying: negative interest rates would only return under exceptional circumstances, stressing their harmful effects on savers and pension funds. with the policy rate now at zero following this year's cuts, schlegel said officials remain cautious about further easing, even as they monitor u.s. tariffs and sluggish domestic inflation. he defended the pace of earlier reductions as necessary to avoid bigger risks, but conceded it leaves the snb with limited scope to respond to new shocks. markets, he noted, still expect rates to remain steady well into 2026. that should be supportive for the chf, but it takes two to tango in a currency pair and technicals do matter too. the fed is expected to cut rates in september, starting their easing cycle. #usdchf #joblessclaims #technicalanalysis #marketmovement #snb #interestrates #tradingstrategy #forextrading #marketanalysis #investinglive lagarde press conference: headwinds on growth should fade next year. higher tariffs, stronger euro and competition are holding growth back. investment should be underpinned by government spending. recent surveys point to growth both in the manufacturing and services sectors. growth shows resilience of domestic demand. economic risks more balanced (previously were tilted to the downside). inflation outlook is more uncertain that usual (no hint on upside or downside risks). stronger euro could bring inflation down more than expected. she is upbeat so far. the bolded comment led to immediate bids in the euro. more: the disinflationary process is over. we are still in a good place. inflation is where we want it to be, the domestic market is showing resilience. decision was unanimous. trade uncertainty has diminished. minimal deviation from target will not necessarily justify movement. #lagarde #pressconference #economicgrowth #inflation #euro #marketupdate #europeanunion #tradingnews #forexanalysis #investinglive eurusd moves down and up after rate decision and us data. the eurusd has been whipsawed in the wake of the ecb rate decision and a stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims report. the first reaction came on the downside, with sellers pressing the pair toward the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the july 1 high, a key level at 1.16615. buyers held the line there, sparking a rebound. that rebound gained traction after the u.s. data, lifting the pair back above the 200-hour moving average at 1.1693 and up to test the 100-hour moving average at 1.1721. sellers, however, defended that first look against the 100-hour average, halting the upside momentum and forcing the price back toward the 200-hour ma. with the pair now caught between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, the market is once again sitting in neutral territory. traders will look to a break on either side of these bias-defining moving averages to set the next directional move. lagarde's press conference could bring additional volatility as the market channels between eu and us fundamentals. #eurusd #ratedecision #usdata #marketvolatility #technicalanalysis #movingaverages #tradingstrategy #forextrading #marketupdate #investinglive us initial jobless claims 263k versus 235k estimate. prior week 237k. initial jobs claims 263k vs 235k estimate. prior week revised marginally lower to 236k vs 237k prior. continuing claims 1.939m vs 1.951m estimate. prior week 1.939m revised from 1.940m. 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 240.50k vs 230.75k. for the continuing claims: 4-week moving average of continuing claims: 1,945,750. change from prior week: -750. previous week's revised average: 1,946,500 (revised down by 250 from 1,946,750). the number is the highest since october 2021. the initial jobs claims is the surprise. did it have to do with the labor day holiday. us stocks have given up some of their gains after the cpi/claims data. the s&p and nasdaq indices are implying a gain of 6 point and 51 points respectively. any again today would still be a record. the us dollar has moved lower as yields have also moved lower. the 2-year yield is now down -4.5 basis point at 3.489%. the 10-year yield is down -2.5 basis points at 4.007%. the eurusd moved back above its 200-hour moving average at 1.1693, and tested the 100-hour moving average at 1.17211 where sellers leaned. the bias is more neutral between the two moving averages. ecb's legarde press conference is ahead. #joblessclaims #usdata #economicindicators #marketupdate #stockmarket #bondyields #marketvolatility #forextrading #investinglive